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BOV Market Watch - Week ending 16th December 2022
16 Dec 2022
Major central banks hike interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by 50 basis point as expected on Thursday, and signalled plans to raise them further. The ECB's deposit rate now stands at two percent, while the borrowing cost for its main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility moved up to 2.50 percent and 2.75 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the Bank of England also raised interest rates, further increasing pressure on households and businesses by pushing borrowing costs up. The central bank announced that rates went up by half a percentage point to 3.5 percent, the highest level since 2008. In the US, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced that it increased its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.25-4.50 percent on Wednesday, as it downshifted from the 75 basis point hikes of its previous four meetings.

US consumer price inflation eased more than expected in November. The increase in US consumer prices eased again in November, rising at their slowest pace since last December, the US Labour Department reported Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up by 0.1 percent in November compared to October and by 7.1 percent from the same month last year. Both readings were below economists’ forecasts. The year-over-year rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, down from the more than 40-year peak of 9.1 percent in June and was the smallest gain since last December.  The “core” CPI, which leaves out volatile items such as food and energy, increased by 0.2 percent for the month and by six percent annually, both of which were also better than forecasts. The monthly uptick in consumer prices was largely due to a continued increases in the prices for shelter, which climbed by 0.6 percent in November following a 0.8 percent increase in October.

UK unemployment rate climbs amid recession worries Britain's unemployment rate rose for a second consecutive month and there were other signs of a cooling labour market in data published today, including an increase in older people saying they were looking for work. Figures published by the Office for National Statistics show that in the three months ended October 2022, the UK unemployment rate was 3.7 percent, up from 3.6 percent in the period of May to July. The employment rate was 75.6 percent, up from 75.5 percent in the previous period. The employment rate was 76.5 percent in February 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic forced a shut-down of the global economy. 

German economic confidence recovers on lower inflation expectations. German investor sentiment continued to recover in December, reaching its highest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as inflation expectations cooled and the country has so far avoided an acute shortage in energy supplies. The ZEW institute’s measure of the mood among investor climbed to -36.7 in November from -59.2 the previous month, exceeding economists’ expectation. But the reading came in below its long-term average in anticipation of a recession. Commenting on the data, the ZEW Institute said that the rising sentiment was related above all to the hope that inflation rates will fall soon. "In this case, policymakers would not have to hit the brakes on monetary policy as hard and/or for as long as feared". 

China retail rales plunge in November on covid woes. China reported retail sales data for November that missed expectations across the board as widespread covid controls weighed on growth. Retail sales fell by 5.9 percent year-on-year in November from a 0.5 percent y-o-y drop in October, according to data made public by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. Retail sales was the worst-performing indicator in November; as the government only started easing covid measures on 7 December. With the implementation of optimized covid response and pro-consumption measures, China's retail sales are expected to steadily recover, the NBS said in a statement.

In case of any queries, please email us on [email protected] or call 2275 3857.
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Bank of Valletta p.l.c. is a public limited company regulated by the MFSA and is licensed to carry out the business of banking and investment services in terms of the Banking Act (Cap. 371 of the Laws of Malta) and the Investment Services Act (Cap.370. of the Laws of Malta).