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Home > BOV Market Watch - Week ending 26th November 2021
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26 Nov 2021
Fed minutes reflect intensifying inflation debate. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers expressed greater concern about the spike in US inflation at their meeting earlier this month and raised the possibility of ending bond purchases sooner than they planned if high prices persisted. Most officials at the central bank’s rate-setting committee still expect price rises to slow next year, minutes of the Fed’s November 2-3 meeting showed, but they also acknowledged that “inflation pressures could take longer to subside” than they previously believed due to ongoing labour and supply shortages. These shortages have pushed the yearly rate of inflation to a 31-year high of 6.2 percent from almost zero just a little over a year ago. At the meeting, Fed officials approved a plan to gradually taper asset purchases of $120 billion a month and wind down the bond-buying programme by next June.

Eurozone business activity picks up despite rise in inflation. The eurozone economy still showed decent growth at the start of the fourth quarter despite growing economic headwinds, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Tuesday. More importantly, price pressures continued to mount according to the survey, adding to the view that the European Central Bank is set to move towards starting tapering. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.8 in November from 54.2 in October. The reading was expected to fall to 53.2. The better-than-expected PMI shows that the eurozone economy has continued on its path of quick recovery at the beginning of the fourth quarter in spite of rising Covid-19 cases. 

German Ifo weakened further In November. Germany’s closely watched leading indicator, the Ifo index, dropped for the fifth consecutive month in November, coming in at 96.5 from 97.7 in October. The measure of business sentiment was forecast to drop to 96.6. The index now stands at its lowest level since February this year. Both the current assessment and the expectations component weakened. The survey results shows that the mood among German businesses continued to worsen in anticipation of the escalation of the fourth wave of the pandemic which could now actually push the economy to the brink of stagnation, or even technical recession. Over the last few days, Germany introduced stricter measures to curb the spread of the pandemic.

UK factory orders growth hits record high. Factory orders in the UK surged this month with the growth measure hitting its highest level since at least 1977, the Industrial Trends Survey data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed on Thursday.  The CBI’s monthly manufacturers’ order book balance leapt to +26 in November from +9 in October, well above the average forecast of +13 in a poll of economists. The survey is likely to add to unease at the Bank of England about growing inflationary pressures ahead of the British central bank’s announcement on December 16 about whether it is raising interest rates from their pandemic lows.

China keeps loan prime rate unchanged as expected. China maintained its benchmark loan prime rates for the 19th month in a row, as widely expected, on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept unchanged at 3.85 percent and the five-year LPR at 4.65 percent. The one-year and five-year LPRs were last lowered in April 2020. The markets expected LPR rates to remain on hold as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) had kept the rate on its medium-term lending facility unchanged early this month. As economic strains continue to grow in the world’s second largest economy, there will be more pressure  on the PBoC to relieve the financing strains of indebted borrowers, Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics, said.
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Bank of Valletta p.l.c. is a public limited company regulated by the MFSA and is licensed to carry out the business of banking and investment services in terms of the Banking Act (Cap. 371 of the Laws of Malta) and the Investment Services Act (Cap.370. of the Laws of Malta).
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