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BOV Market Watch - Week ending 13th November 2020
13 Nov 2020

German investor morale falls on second wave concerns. German economic confidence plummeted to a seven-month low in November as financial experts grew more worried about the economic impact of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, survey data from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed on Tuesday. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment deteriorated by a more-than-expected 17.1 to 39.0 points in November from 56.1 in October. The gauge was forecast to fall to 41.7 and this month’s reading was the lowest since April. The report showed that the current conditions index dropped to -64.3 from -59.5 a month ago compared with expectations for a reading of -65.0. "Financial experts are concerned about the economic impact of the second wave of Covid-19 and what this will entail," ZEW President Achim Wambach said.

UK unemployment rate rises as government scales back furlough scheme. The UK's unemployment rate rose to 4.8 percent in the three months to September, up from 4.5 percent, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to impact the jobs market. The number of people out of work rose by 243,000 in the three-month period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Businesses made more workers redundant in anticipation of the end of the furlough scheme, which was originally intended to finish at the end of October. It has now been extended until the end of March. But analysts said the extension came "too late in the day" to save some jobs and further big rises in unemployment were likely in the coming months.

China’s inflation falls to lowest since November 2009. China’s official consumer price index (CPI) dropped sharply to an annual rate of just 0.5 percent in October from 1.7 percent in September according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. The October figure was well below expectation of 0.8 percent. The low reading suggested that China stands on the verge of a technical deflation defined as a sustained drop in the general price level of goods and services, which is considered as a very serious threat to the economy. The sharp decline in inflation in October was largely caused by a drop in pork prices which dragged down the consumer inflation rate. China’s pork prices last month fell by 2.8 percent from a year ago, considerably lower than in September when pork prices rose by 25.5 percent.

India likely entered a recession. The Reserve Bank of India says the country likely entered into a technical recession for the first time in its history this year. The central bank estimates GDP declined 8.6 percent in the July-September quarter after dropping 23.9 percent in the April-June quarter. The country has been under different levels of restrictions for over 200 days and has recorded over 8 million coronavirus cases.

Australian consumer confidence helps drive recovery. With coronavirus cases at their lowest level since the pandemic began, Australian consumer confidence recorded a seven-year-high, helping to boost the country out of its first recession in decades. The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia increased by 2.5 percent to 107.7 points in November, following an 11.9-percent jump in October, putting the index at its highest point since November 2013. The result released on Wednesday follows progress in Australia's containing of the virus, with the two most Covid-19 affected states, New South Wales and Victoria, not recording a single locally acquired cases for the past five days and 12 days respectively. "We're bounding back from the terrible lows that we saw as we moved through the worst part of the Covid-19 recession," Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.

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Bank of Valletta p.l.c. is a public limited company regulated by the MFSA and is licensed to carry out the business of banking and investment services in terms of the Banking Act (Cap. 371 of the Laws of Malta) and the Investment Services Act (Cap.370. of the Laws of Malta).